London Aluminum rose rapidly at the opening, and Shanghai Aluminum also opened higher in early trading. Since most of Rusal’s alumina production capacity is distributed overseas, imports from Australia account for about 9%, and the alumina production capacity that has been suspended in Ukla before, if all production is suspended, it will affect the production of Rusal’s electrolytic aluminum. to have a greater impact. From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, the resumption of domestic production is gradually being carried out, and the production capacity continues to be released.
The European energy crisis is still fermenting, and the production reduction of European electrolytic aluminum plants is likely to continue to expand. The impact of the domestic epidemic has intensified, and the impact on production is less, and more in the field of circulation. In terms of demand, downstream processing enterprises continued to resume production, and the operating rate increased month on month. According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 70.2%. However, affected by the epidemic and higher raw material prices, some companies have insufficient orders. In terms of terminals, the previous bearish expectation was maintained, the performance of real estate and home appliances was weak, and the performance of wires, cables, and automobiles was relatively strong.
In terms of exports, due to the low ratio of Shanghai aluminum, it is relatively good. In terms of inventory, on March 17, SMM counted 1.089 million tons of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, 53,000 tons compared with last Thursday; domestic aluminum rod inventory was 190,000 tons, 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The social inventory has turned to destock, and the destocking rate is relatively large, which has become the biggest bullish factor in the near future.
Recently, the supply of alumina has been loosening, and the price has been relatively low, while the production of electrolytic aluminum has recovered steadily, and the monthly output of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be no less than 3.3 million tons. , a wide range, or delay the redemption time of traditional consumption seasons. Last week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum fell by 50,000 tons, and the bonded inventory fell by 1,200 tons. LME electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to decline, and domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories are in a state of destocking. Both internal and external depots have pushed the focus of aluminum prices to continue to move up, but the impact of the domestic epidemic on consumption is more direct.
Recently, domestic epidemics have occurred frequently, with wide distribution and rapid spread, causing disruption to the domestic transportation industry.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the transportation of domestic aluminum products is slow, the amount of inventory in transit has increased, and the arrival of mainstream warehouses has decreased. In some areas, downstream processing enterprises have reduced production or stopped production due to a limited supply of raw materials, and market demand has weakened. The second quarter is coming soon. The peak consumption season may be postponed, and continuous attention should be paid to the later period.